So the eurozone crisis is back with full force. Did it ever really go away? I don’t propose to try and recap the events of the last few days in Cyprus with the bail-in of bank depositors, things are moving quickly enough that I would be out of date almost immediately. Instead, let’s focus briefly [...]

“I believe that right now we are sleeping on a volcano … can you not sense, by a sort of instinctive intuition, that the earth is trembling again in Europe? Can you not feel … the wind of revolution in the air?” Alexis de Tocqueville (1805 – 1859)

It is a long time since I last made a financial prediction in print, but I feel a need to make one now. The previous ones can be found here and here. Regular readers might recall that I have been confused about the state of the economic world for a while and how and why [...]

The election result in Italy, when combined with the obvious horrors of mass unemployment in a number of countries, real financial hardship for many and a growing number of corruption scandals (listed here) might just be the beginning of the end. With Beppe Grillo’s party taking the largest slice of the vote it is hard [...]

Where has the volatility gone in financial markets? Why is the current political situation not causing mayhem? Over the last few weeks I have been developing a theory about the current state of financial markets. The theory isn’t fully fleshed out, despite my efforts, but I hope that by explaining my thinking here I can [...]

Corruption amongst public officials is never nice, but it seems that suddenly it is everywhere. Amongst the recent news I have seen references alleging: – Slovenian politicians not declaring their incomes – Greek politicians overlooking tax evading family members on the “Lagarde list” – Spanish politicians apparently receiving extra cash each year – the suspension [...]

Today I plan to ask a simple and somewhat rhetorical question. It relates to the recent movements in the eurozone crisis and their relationship to German politics. If you have been following the eurozone crisis, you might have noticed that the pressure on Greece seems to have eased. A few months ago it seemed to [...]

Readers of this blog will know that I post my thoughts about innovation policy from time to time. One of the key areas – at least in my mind – of the innovation policy area is that of funding. Typically an entrepreneur with an idea does not also have the required money to back the [...]

Over the last few days, it seems to me as though the eurozone crisis has become much worse. Please don’t misunderstand me, there hasn’t been another bailout an it was hushed up … the Netherlands didn’t request help, no. Instead, there has been something of an unstitching behind the scenes. If I think back to [...]

I can remember being asked by a friend back in June what was going to happen with the euro for the rest of this year. That is the kind of question that I normally try and fend off, but I was feeling a little vulnerable that day and so I just blurted out an answer. [...]

My local chip shop is owned by a Londoner called Andy. A couple of days ago I found myself being talked to by him about the Premiership. I don’t follow football all that closely, but he and I support the same team so there is a very real but limited amount of kinship between us. [...]

Despite having some time on my hands to think, I am still baffled by the current state of the markets. Firstly, despite all the potential risks facing the global economy (Greece, Spain, Italy, the US financial cliff and a slowdown in China) stock markets seem to be surprisingly buoyant. Dare I say rosy…? Who knows [...]

There have been a couple of legal challenges made to the European Stability Mechanism. The challenge in Ireland seems to have been brushed aside but there is still, of course, an appeal to be heard. Even so, the progress of the ESM seems to be pretty smooth. Yesterday, however, the German Constitutional Court decided to [...]

If ever there was a demonstration that “light-touch” regulation of financial firms has not been a great success, this week has been it. Over the years, we have heard huge amounts from the banking sector about how they are competent to regulate themselves. The fact that many governments have agreed and let them get on [...]

The title of this blog post asks a very simple question, but one that I feel needs asking in the present circumstances. In many countries, the interest earned on savings in a bank account are liable for some form of taxation. Usually it is taxed as earned income at the same rates as any other [...]

Over the last ten days or so there has been much talk about a European Banking Union (if this is all news to you, this post by Gavyn Davies in the FT explains all you might need to know). Since that post has been written there has been much said and thought and of course [...]

Recently I have been dipping into The Great Crash 1929 by J.K Galbraith. It is a wonderful book that I cannot recommend highly enough. Everyone should read it. It should be part of the curriculum in every country for every student. I can only hope that there are finance ministers around the world reading it [...]

In the end, a vote in favour of the Fiscal Compact of just over 60% looks like Ireland was almost in agreement. If nothing else, the vote shows just how far the eurozone crisis has come and how meaningless many of the measures to date have been. When the Fiscal Compact was first announced and [...]

It seems that as the days pass, more and more officials are openly discussing a Greek exit from the euro. Now that this sort of momentum is building it is impossible to see any other course of action. I first wrote about a Greek exit here all the way back in May 2011. It was [...]

As I read some of the latest news about the Greek election and the attempts to form a government I am struck by the following quotes: “We cannot make true our dream of a left-wing government“, says Alexis Tsipras of SYRIZA and that “Foreign creditors are now more open to renegotiate“. Meanwhile, “Should Greece stop [...]

In my last post (What Is The Cost To Europe Of Individual Actions?) I looked at the apparent movement of money out of Greece and into potentially safer locations. That is, of course, only one form of individual action. This weekend has seen another sort of individual action which has the collective power to cause [...]

Your author has just returned from a short weekend trip to Berlin. This is not my first visit, but it was my first time with a group of people that are mostly German, live in the city and know it well. In other words, I was able to see and learn much more than the [...]

This week provided a stark reminder that “markets” are not as perfect as we might hope. The double-whammy of the Dutch government falling and Nicolas Sarkozy narrowly losing the first round presidential vote sent markets sharply down. Yet, for those of us that follow politics and policy, weren’t these reasonably predictable events? The polls had [...]

Life has been treating me well recently (summer is coming, I have a new business venture to concentrate my mind on, several people have commented that I have “lost weight” and family members have recently visited me) and it hard to imagine things being much better (save for a Victoria’s Secret model calling me for [...]

Several of my recent posts have related to the “skills mismatch” in Europe. In these times of high unemployment it seems right to do so and I clearly recall the emphasis placed on education during the eSkills launch a few weeks ago (I wrote about it here). There are, however, two sides to every story. [...]