June 4, 2012
In the end, a vote in favour of the Fiscal Compact of just over 60% looks like Ireland was almost in agreement. If nothing else, the vote shows just how far the eurozone crisis has come and how meaningless many of the measures to date have been.
When the Fiscal Compact was first announced and the UK took a step backwards back in December, it was not clear that the deal would be overly helpful in solving the crisis. Within days of it’s agreement, it was clear to many banking and financial pundits that it would have virtually no impact at all. Just a few months later and it had simply become a self-made banana skin to be avoided by the EU.
As events charge onwards, the Irish vote had become a damage limitation exercise. If the Irish people had voted no, all hell may have broken loose. As it was, they voted yes and it barely made the news.
The situation in Greece is barely any different. If the outcome of the forthcoming general election in Greece is one without a clear result again, or with a clear mandate given to an anti-austerity party, all hell may break loose and who knows where it may end. If, on the other hand, a coalition is possible from parties that plan to follow through on the already agreed austerity measures, then we are back to the debates about how much austerity and how to create growth in a nation in depression.
In other words, these are two democratic elections without obvious upside apart from the demonstration that Europe is still democratic despite the problems being faced. Perhaps that is enough for now…financialguy