FinancialGuy Writes!

Archives for Economy & Euro

On 23rd December 2015 I published this post forecasting a very good year for the price of Bitcoin. At the time, I quoted 1 BTC = 401.93 (Bid) and 402.87 (Ask) euros on Kraken. The current price on the exchange Kraken is 509.45 (Bid) and 509.50 (Ask) euros, which is a gain of 26.5%. In… » read more

Posted by financialguy

“There is a good review in today’s FT of the book ‘The Euro’ by the estimable Joseph Stiglitz. Martin Sandbu, the reviewer, notes Stiglitz’s contention that the Euro was ill conceived and doomed from the outset. However, Sandbu is very appreciative of Stiglitz’s critique of the various policy decisions which have been taken around the… » read more

Posted by financialguy

I’m sure that many of us are watching the escalating cluster f*&k that is the negotiations between the Troika and Greece with amazement. It is as if both sides are desperate to prevent a deal. (I recently wrote about it here and here). My question is simple, what if Greece does not want to find… » read more

Posted by financialguy

About two weeks ago I found myself in a conversation with a lady at a dinner party. She spoke at length about Italy and kept repeating more and more loudly that “Italy has collapsed”. That may be true. In trying to make her understand my slightly more nuanced position I made the point that the… » read more

Posted by financialguy

Europe Needs More Startups

On Friday last week (6th September) your author moderated two panel discussions at an EU event in Floriana, Malta. It was an EESC Going Local event in partnership with DG Connect. The first panel discussion began with a few words and some Q&A with the Director General of DG Connect (responsible for the Digital Agenda),… » read more

Posted by financialguy

“Left to themselves, the Europeans run the risk of becoming absorbed by their internal social concerns. Europe’s economic recovery has obscured the longer-run costs of its seeming success. These costs are damaging economically as well as politically. The crisis of political legitimacy and economic vitality that Western Europe increasingly confronts – but it unable to… » read more

Posted by financialguy

When Confidence Is Lost

So the eurozone crisis is back with full force. Did it ever really go away? I don’t propose to try and recap the events of the last few days in Cyprus with the bail-in of bank depositors, things are moving quickly enough that I would be out of date almost immediately. Instead, let’s focus briefly… » read more

Posted by financialguy

It is a long time since I last made a financial prediction in print, but I feel a need to make one now. The previous ones can be found here and here. Regular readers might recall that I have been confused about the state of the economic world for a while and how and why… » read more

Posted by financialguy

Is Disaster The New Normal?

Where has the volatility gone in financial markets? Why is the current political situation not causing mayhem? Over the last few weeks I have been developing a theory about the current state of financial markets. The theory isn’t fully fleshed out, despite my efforts, but I hope that by explaining my thinking here I can… » read more

Posted by financialguy

A Politician Is Not A Country

Today I plan to ask a simple and somewhat rhetorical question. It relates to the recent movements in the eurozone crisis and their relationship to German politics. If you have been following the eurozone crisis, you might have noticed that the pressure on Greece seems to have eased. A few months ago it seemed to… » read more

Posted by financialguy

Over the last few days, it seems to me as though the eurozone crisis has become much worse. Please don’t misunderstand me, there hasn’t been another bailout an it was hushed up … the Netherlands didn’t request help, no. Instead, there has been something of an unstitching behind the scenes. If I think back to… » read more

Posted by financialguy

My local chip shop is owned by a Londoner called Andy. A couple of days ago I found myself being talked to by him about the Premiership. I don’t follow football all that closely, but he and I support the same team so there is a very real but limited amount of kinship between us.… » read more

Posted by financialguy

Despite having some time on my hands to think, I am still baffled by the current state of the markets. Firstly, despite all the potential risks facing the global economy (Greece, Spain, Italy, the US financial cliff and a slowdown in China) stock markets seem to be surprisingly buoyant. Dare I say rosy…? Who knows… » read more

Posted by financialguy