July 19, 2018
For more than one year your author has been avidly following the regular news and gossip updates from the United States regarding the Mueller investigation. It is one of the reasons why this blog has been so quiet – the news I am most interested in appears to have little EU relevance.
Then this weekend happened!
President Trump bashed NATO, declared the EU a “foe” and had that press conference in Helsinki with Vladimir Putin.
My general theories on the Mueller investigation were that:
– Paul Manafort will be convicted and unless he cuts a deal, will spend the rest of his life behind bars;
– there will be more indictments from the Mueller investigation of people that we are not currently looking at (you wouldn’t want to have served in the early days of this White House for any amount of money);
– Donald Trump Jr will be prosecuted for conspiracy and then pardoned by his father;
– while there has been nothing mentioned publicly, I find it hard to imagine that Vice President Pence is not involved somehow too. I do not think this because I think he is a bad person, or guilty, just that there seemed to be so many freewheeling meetings during the Trump campaign and transition that he must have been copied into some emails or sat in on some meetings, even if only accidentally;
– the Michael Cohen investigation will bring down the entire Trump organisation. Since it is being investigated by the Southern District of New York, rather than at Federal level there can be no pardons. There are almost certainly going to be emails and communications related to business deals in far away countries that – intentionally or not – prove the guilt of many members of the organisation. My guess is that Cohen will flip, but whether he does or not, the SDNY has more than 1.3 million messages of his!
– there will be more females with stories similar to Stormy Daniels that come forward with more cases against the President;
– President Trump’s tax returns will somehow be leaked or published and we will all find out that he is not that rich;
– President Trump is almost certainly guilty of obstruction of justice at the minimum;
– after the mid-terms in November the House majority will change and the report that the Mueller investigation publishes can be acted on to impeach President Trump;
– at some point in 2019, President Trump will leave office, with most of his family in the process of being prosecuted, or having made a plea deal. These processes are long. For example, Nixon resigned 26 months after the start of the investigation into his activities. The Mueller investigation was launched in May 2017.
But now, after this weekend, we all need to start contemplating the unthinkable that the links between Trump and Putin were not just that “we wanted to see Donald Trump win”, but something much more. Where this goes, who knows, but with the exception of just two men, it is hard to imagine that there is anyone else that thinks this is a “witch hunt” or “fake news”.
I have been telling friends for months that the Mueller investigation is likely to uncover the crime of the century and so much is happening publicly that we ought to settle in and enjoy the ride!financialguy